Karl Rove delivers a chilling alert: Latino voters in Texas, who propelled Trump’s 2024 victory, are now fleeing the GOP, imperiling Republican control in the critical 2026 midterms.
Rove’s Stark Warning on Fox News
Karl Rove, former senior adviser to President George W. Bush, appeared on Fox News’ Journal Editorial Report to sound the alarm. He highlighted diminishing Republican support in Texas among Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024. Rove noted that gerrymandering efforts to secure five new House districts now face headwinds. This internal critique from a GOP veteran underscores the urgency for party leaders to address voter shifts before midterms.
Latino Support Shifts Dramatically Post-2024
Nearly 50 percent of Latinos supported Trump in the 2024 election, fueling Republican congressional gains. Within a year, support eroded sharply. Polls show 70 percent of Latinos disapprove of Trump’s performance, citing immigration handling and economic issues. The Economist/YouGov January 2026 survey recorded just 36 percent approval among Hispanics. This reversal threatens the GOP’s demographic coalition in a pivotal state.
Vulnerable Districts Highlight the Risk
The Corpus Christi to Brownsville district saw Trump win by one point in 2024. Softening Hispanic support now jeopardizes defeating the Democratic incumbent. In the Laredo to San Antonio district, Rep. Henry Cuellar outperformed Kamala Harris by nearly 10 points despite Trump’s narrow victory. Rove warned these seats exemplify how demographic erosion undermines redistricting gains. Quinnipiac polling reveals 57 percent disapproval of ICE enforcement.
Cuellar, pardoned by Trump yet loyal to Democrats, symbolizes resilience. Rove stated support diminished despite initial border security backing. This dynamic risks Republican House control despite Senate advantages.
Implications for 2026 Midterms and Beyond
Short-term, GOP majorities hang in balance as gerrymandering proves insufficient against Latino realignment. Texas districts once deemed safe now compete fiercely. Long-term, this signals challenges to Republican dominance, with immigration and economy dictating voter loyalty. Party leadership must recalibrate to rebuild Hispanic ties. Conservatives recognize securing the border won initial gains, but execution matters for lasting coalitions.
Sources:
National Memo: Reprints Rove’s Fox News segment with direct quotes and context
Political Wire: Confirms Rove’s warning with attribution to Mediaite reporting
AOL: Karl Rove stark warning Republicans