Italy’s Giorgia Meloni spent three years proving her critics wrong — but now a new hard-right party is threatening to blow up her coalition before the next election.
Quick Take
- Meloni’s center-right coalition won a strong majority in 2022 and has governed more moderately than critics feared.
- Eight lawmakers have already defected to a new hard-right party called “National Future,” shrinking her majority.
- The new party could force Meloni to choose between appeasing the hard right or losing her governing coalition entirely.
- Despite the turmoil at home, Meloni is playing a bigger role on the world stage, including pushing for a new security force in Lebanon.
Meloni’s Rise: From Fringe to Power
In September 2022, Giorgia Meloni led her Brothers of Italy party to a stunning win. The party jumped from just 4% of the vote in 2018 to 26% in 2022. Her center-right coalition grabbed about 44% of the total vote — enough to win a comfortable majority in both houses of Italy’s parliament. [3] After the win, Meloni held up a sign reading “Thank you Italy” and promised her government would “govern for everyone.” [2]
Meloni became Italy’s first female prime minister on October 22, 2022. Many in Europe braced for chaos. Instead, she delivered three years of stable governance. Italy ran a fiscal surplus of +0.4% in 2024. [1] Her government backed Ukraine, supported European Union border security, and kept Italy firmly in the Euro-Atlantic alliance. Her party’s support has grown to around 30% of voters. [1] By most measures, she defied the doom-and-gloom predictions.
Cracks in the Coalition
The trouble is coming from inside the house. Eight members of parliament have bolted from the governing coalition to join a new hard-right party called “National Future,” led by a retired general named Roberto Vanachi. [1] Most of the defectors came from Matteo Salvini’s League party. The departures directly cut into Meloni’s parliamentary majority, making it harder to pass legislation and keep the government stable.
The League itself has become a source of friction. Salvini has pushed the party toward a harder anti-immigration line, which clashes with the more pragmatic image Meloni has tried to project. [1] The three coalition partners — Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forza Italia — increasingly disagree on policy beyond their basic shared agenda. Analysts warn the coalition could fracture within months if the tensions are not managed carefully.
A Devil’s Bargain Ahead of 2027
The rise of “National Future” puts Meloni in a tough spot heading into the 2027 election. If she tries to work with Vanachi’s new party, she risks alienating moderate voters who backed her because she seemed reasonable. If she ignores the new party, she risks being outflanked on the right and losing seats she needs to stay in power. [1] It is a classic squeeze play — and there is no easy way out.
Giorgia Meloni has bigger issues than Trump’s childish criticisms. A new hard-right insurgency is draining support from Meloni’s coalition, promising remigration and even stricter social conservatism. Meloni’s biggest battles are yet to come, says Rocco Loiacono…
— spiked (@spikedonline) June 28, 2026
Former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and his Five Star Movement also remain a threat on the left. Conte is one of the rare Italian politicians who stayed popular after leaving office and could pull together a broad opposition coalition. [1] Meanwhile, Meloni is also navigating a more complicated relationship with allies. She pushed back publicly against some of President Trump’s recent statements, showing she is willing to stand her ground even with friendly governments. On the world stage, she and French President Emmanuel Macron have proposed a new multinational security force to replace United Nations peacekeepers in Lebanon — a sign she is playing a bigger diplomatic role than her critics ever expected.
Sources:
[1] Web – Meloni faces pact with devil to stay in power…
[2] Web – Meloni’s coalition balancing fragile alliances and reform risks
[3] Web – Giorgia Meloni: Italy’s far-right wins election and vows to govern for …